Previewing Chris Levonas vs Jake Knapp

Wake Forest star freshman Chris Levonas is set to make his ACC debut tonight against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The former second round draft pick of the Milwaukee Brewers will toe the rubber against the ACC’s frontrunner for Pitcher of the Year, Jake Knapp. There’s a handful of great pitching matchups across the conference this evening but Levonas versus Knapp is appointment television.

Knapp is the crafty, hard-throwing veteran with pinpoint accuracy. He’s a stocky graduate student with years of experience exceeding expectations. It won’t be surprising if he signs an undrafted free agent deal after the season, but his draft stock is low. Levonas is the brash, big stuff rookie with an elite swing-and-miss arsenal. He’s a gangly freshman with just five appearances under his belt. He’s already been a high draft pick and expectations are sky high for the righty. 

Levonas has made five midweek starts so far this season, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 13.1 innings of work. He threw just 4.1 combined innings over his first three starts against Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Liberty, but has been stretched out over his last two outings. He went four shutout innings against Elon where he threw 59 pitches. 

Levonas ’s coming off a career best start 10 days ago against High Point in which he allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings while striking out ten. The New Jersey native didn’t allow a hit through the first 4.1 innings of work and has only allowed two hits over his last nine innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .091 against him. Of the 22 balls put in play against him so far this season, he’s only given up three barrels.

At 6’2”, 175, Levonas is still growing into his frame but has future high first round pick potential. The right-handed freshman features a plus fastball that averages 94 MPH with good spin. Don’t be surprised if he’s amped up tonight and has a bit of a spike in velocity to start. He’s thrown that fastball roughly 65% of the time and has generated a 53% whiff rate with that pitch. Levonas is still working to harness his command and control consistently, as evidenced by nine walks in 13.1 innings.

Levonas uses two effective breaking balls to complement the fastball and each has a chance to become strong weapons in the arsenal. The first is a 77-to-78 MPH curveball that he deploys about 17% that induces a swing-and-miss about 73% of the time. He throws his slider just a little less at 14% and it sits around 83-to-85 MPH. Both pitches are only in the zone around 37% of the time, so if UNC hitters are able to lay off those pitches, they could find some success. The issue is identifying those pitches out of the hand and not getting fooled by the elite fastball.

Lastly, Levonas has a decent changeup that he throws rarely– about 3% of the time. It’s only about 6 MPH off the fastball and doesn’t have the same command level as the other weapons. Still, it’s an offspeed pitch that the youngster can employ if needed against a strong ACC team.

Jake Knapp has emerged as the ACC’s best starting pitcher so far this season, boasting a 6-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 45.2 innings pitched. He’s turned in five straight Quality Starts to begin conference play and hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in a single start this season. 

Knapp was slated to be UNC’s Friday night starter in 2024 before an arm injury ended his season before it even began. After 623 days since his last appearance, the graduate right-hander took the mound for the Tar Heels on Opening Weekend and delivered three innings while giving up just one run to Texas Tech. 

At 6’5”, 270 pounds, Knapp is a massive presence on the mound. He showcases elite command and has only given up seven walks in 45.2 innings– good for a 4% walk rate. Like Levonas, Knapp’s primary weapon is a 93-to-94 MPH fastball that he uses 61% of the time. He doesn’t strikeout batters at the same clip as the projectable youngster, but he has eight or more K’s in four games this year and possesses a 25% K rate. Knapp commands the fastball with precision and keeps hitters honest by throwing it in the zone about half the time. While it’s not his primary strikeout pitch, hitters are swinging-and-missing 43% of the time against it. 

Knapp’s secondary pitches are very good as well and can all be thrown for strikes in any situation. His breaking ball is a 78-to-81 MPH slider that he uses just 13% of the time, while his primary strikeout weapon is the 83-to-84 MPH changeup that he uses 23% of the time and generates the most whiffs of his arsenal. The veteran's ability to mix these pitches effectively while commanding the zone and generating weak contact is why he’s been the ACC’s best.

Knapp has given up just 11 total barrels in 124 balls put in play and is holding opposing hitters to a .186 average and .275 slugging percentage. Wake Forest has an elite offense but they’ve struggled at times against top-end starting pitching as evidenced by their performances against Aidan Knaak, Brett Renfrow, and Jamie Arnold.

North Carolina’s offense has struggled at times this year and have scored fewer than five runs in 14 of 33 contests while sitting 14th in the ACC with a .268 batting average. They’ve found ways to win behind stellar pitching, great defense, and aggressive base running, but this UNC offense seems like the ideal first conference opponent for Levonas. 

As for Knapp, it’s the latest test for a graduate student who has aced all that have come before him. A week after stifling a hot Duke lineup without his best stuff, he’ll be looking to quiet a Wake Forest offense that just scored 34 runs against Florida State.The two pitchers on the mound couldn’t be more different and yet both have the same goal: win Friday night.